The Potential Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on South Africa
The 2008 economic and financial crisis was more global than any financial turmoil during the past 60 years. Even though most emerging markets still have relatively healthy banking systems, they felt the effect of the global credit crisis far more acutely than they would have in the past. This paper was prepared as part of…
read more >>Editorial – Special Issue: Industrial growth and employment in South Africa.
Simkins offers population projections from 2007 to 2024 for the Human Sciences Research Council Employment Scenarios. He uses the SPECTRUM model by population group, gender and age group, based on:· The population composition reported by the Community Survey 2007· Fertility as estimated by the Community Survey 2007·Mortality as determined by background mortality and the effect of…
read more >>Mining Employment Scenarios for South Africa to 2024
Baartjes et al investigate the employment potential of the South African mining industry. They assess mining investment on a commodity-specific basis, the drivers of mining employment, how these relate to investment, and whether significant technological changes (greater mechanisation) would be widely adopted. This is followed by a discussion of employment, incomes and occupational skills levels,…
read more >>Identifying employment creating sectors in South Africa
Will Government’s current policy priorities and plans in relation to the formal services sector guide the economy towards its 2014 target of halving unemployment? Net new employment has mainly been found in formal and non-formal services. Given the structure of the SA economy, it is most probable that future employment will also be sourced from…
read more >>2030 Horizon Scanning in South Africa: Domestic Economy
Unemployment and poverty are among the central uncertainties facing the South African economy. Creating market-based jobs is the most sustainable way of addressing these problems. The Human Sciences Research Council generated scenarios for job creation to 2024, based on GDP growth rates of 3%, 4.5% and 6%. It projects that if the economy grew by…
read more >>Setting Targets for Unemployment Reduction and Employment Creation
“Altman translates ‘halving unemployment’ into concrete targets for unemployment and employment. Reducing unemployment and expanding employment do not necessarily involve the same policy complements. Reducing unemployment depends not only on job creation, but also on the pace of labour force growth. Therefore targets are needed for growing employment and reducing unemployment. This discussion paper outlines…
read more >>Elements of Employment Scenario-Building: do Sources of Job Creation Matter? (Three different versions Oct 06, Nov 06 and Jan 07)
“This paper was the initial version of the HSRC Employment Scenarios. Altman starts by proposing 4 categories of job creating sectors: those that focus on poverty alleviation (such as special employment projects), the public service, “follower” services (generally low paid non-traded activity such as retail) and “dynamic” goods and services industries that are traded (such…
read more >>Employment Scenarios to 2024
“The South African government adopted targets of halving unemployment and poverty by 2014. Altman assembles a set of possible scenarios for 2024 for achieving that goal. The approach is to identify the decisions required to boost job creation under different economic conditions, and to set realistic expectations for how certain market-based sectors might contribute to…
read more >>Background to Employment Scenarios
The Human Sciences Research Council’s Evidence-Based Employment Scenarios project was established to develop feasible scenarios of the economic structure to meet the goal of reducing unemployment by half between 2004 and 2014. It aims to identify the path and policy complements required to achieve these scenarios, as well as their political, financial and bureaucratic implications….
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