Employment Scenarios to 2024

by ALTMAN, M., 2007
Research Report, Employment Growth & Development Initiative, Human Sciences Research Council

“The South African government adopted targets of halving unemployment and poverty by 2014. Altman assembles a set of possible scenarios for 2024 for achieving that goal. The approach is to identify the decisions required to boost job creation under different economic conditions, and to set realistic expectations for how certain market-based sectors might contribute to employment growth The South African government adopted targets of halving unemployment and poverty by 2014. Altman assembles a set of possible scenarios for 2024 for achieving that goal. The approach is to identify the decisions required to boost job creation under different economic conditions, and to set realistic expectations for how certain market-based sectors might contribute to employment growth • There are two complementary ways of ensuring that the benefits of growth are broadly shared: through the composition of industrial growth and through the distribution of private and social incomes. • A higher proportion of manufacturing is not necessarily a guarantee of higher growth. Most economies that sustained high rates of growth devalued their currencies to boost exports, made significant investments in key network services, and implemented strong market access arrangements. • No single intervention will generate ‘a million jobs’. The sector studies show potential job creation of only 20,000–250,000 net new jobs per sector. This underscores the importance of improving the general business environment. But even at relatively high rates of economic growth, the commitment to halving unemployment will require substantial direct job creation by government. • The surprisingly small size of the informal economy may be explained by the regulatory environment and barriers such as a lack of access to capital or skills, high crime rates, and market structure. “



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