Employment Scenarios to 2014 & 2024 in the Context of a Global Meltdown
The 2007 Human Sciences Research Council employment scenarios are updated in this paper, taking into account the possible impact of the global economic crisis on employment and poverty. Altman puts forward three employment scenarios, projecting economic growth rates averaging 2.5% (L-shaped recovery), 3.3% (U-shaped recovery) and 4.5% (V-shaped recovery) between 2004 and 2014. They all…
read more >>Mining Employment Scenarios for South Africa to 2024
Baartjes et al investigate the employment potential of the South African mining industry. They assess mining investment on a commodity-specific basis, the drivers of mining employment, how these relate to investment, and whether significant technological changes (greater mechanisation) would be widely adopted. This is followed by a discussion of employment, incomes and occupational skills levels,…
read more >>Identifying employment creating sectors in South Africa
Will Government’s current policy priorities and plans in relation to the formal services sector guide the economy towards its 2014 target of halving unemployment? Net new employment has mainly been found in formal and non-formal services. Given the structure of the SA economy, it is most probable that future employment will also be sourced from…
read more >>2030 Horizon Scanning in South Africa: Domestic Economy
Unemployment and poverty are among the central uncertainties facing the South African economy. Creating market-based jobs is the most sustainable way of addressing these problems. The Human Sciences Research Council generated scenarios for job creation to 2024, based on GDP growth rates of 3%, 4.5% and 6%. It projects that if the economy grew by…
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