scenarios

The challenge of employment creation in South Africa

Altman reviews trends in employment, unemployment and working poverty, as well as the employment scenarios developed by the Human Sciences Research Council. Central questions relate to which sectors might create jobs, the role of government in direct job creation, the connection between employment and poverty reduction, and the need for social protection. Many of South…

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Horizon Scanning in South Africa: Health and HIV and AIDS

South Africa has a mature HIV and AIDS epidemic, with 11% of the population having been infected. A review of possible scenarios provides insight into the outlook towards 2030. The Live the Future scenarios discussed here were based on two sets of branching points – who has the power, and what their goals are. Summer…

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Public service employment and job creation in South Africa

The public service is a significant source of employment in South Africa, accounting for about 13% of formal employment. Until recently, it played a diminishing role, dampening employment growth in the economy. What should its role be in employment creation? This is particularly important in the context of high structural unemployment and serious racial bias…

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Comment on Eskom’s Proposal for Price Increase in 2008/9

This is a submission made to NERSA in respect of its MYPD review. Eskom is seeking additional price increases above the 14.2% already approved, that is, a 100% real increase over two years. Altman investigates the potential economic impact of differently distributed pricing or rationing options to reduce peak electricity usage and electricity consumption. She…

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Comment on Eskom’s MYPD 2 Proposal

This is a submission to NERSA (South Africa’s energy regulator) in respect of the MYPD2. Eskom applied to NERSA in respect of the second round of a three-year Multi-Year Price Determination (MYPD2) for the period 2010/11–2012/13. Its initial submission in September 2009 requested a 45% nominal increase in each of the three years. A second…

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Horizon Scanning in South Africa: Migration and Demographics

Cross offers a view on potential migration patterns in South Africa, as part of a DFID Horizons Scenario exercise.

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Leveraging Services for Growth, Employment and Equity: Services Strategies: Reaching 2014 Employment Targets

Altman explores whether government’s current policy priorities and plans for the formal services sector are sufficient to guide the South African economy towards its 2014 target of halving unemployment. Over the past seven years, net new employment has mainly occurred in formal and non-formal services. Given the structure of economy, it is probable that future…

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Foreign Tourism’s Contribution Towards Growth and Job Creation in SA

Lowitt considers the potential contribution of tourism and related services to future growth and employment in South Africa. This is the final report. It offers a useful analysis of the tourism sector, and was ultimately used as a background study for the Human Sciences Research Council’s Employment Scenarios.

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Sector Studies and Employment Scenarios: A View of South Africa’s Tourism Sector (Preliminary Findings)

Lowitt explores the potential contribution of tourism and related activity to future growth and employment in South Africa. This paper was an early preliminary assessment.

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