Formal / Informal Linkages in South Africa: Some Considerations
Informal employment in South Africa grew from 965,000 to just over 2.3-million workers between 1997 and 2005, rising from about 10% to 18% of the employed workforce. Notwithstanding the difficulties and debates about data issues, it is widely accepted that informal employment grew rapidly in the late 1990s, and stabilised in the 2000s. In this…
read more >>Employment Scenarios to 2014 & 2024 in the Context of a Global Meltdown
The 2007 Human Sciences Research Council employment scenarios are updated in this paper, taking into account the possible impact of the global economic crisis on employment and poverty. Altman puts forward three employment scenarios, projecting economic growth rates averaging 2.5% (L-shaped recovery), 3.3% (U-shaped recovery) and 4.5% (V-shaped recovery) between 2004 and 2014. They all…
read more >>The Implications of the Global Economic Crisis for Industrial Sectors in South Africa
Throughout 2008 it seemed that the effects of the growing global financial crisis were largely passing South Africa by. By comparison with many developed countries, its financial sector and to a large extent its economy remained strong. However, from the start of 2009, the second-round effects began to affect the economy, through substantially reduced international…
read more >>The Potential Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on South Africa
The 2008 economic and financial crisis was more global than any financial turmoil during the past 60 years. Even though most emerging markets still have relatively healthy banking systems, they felt the effect of the global credit crisis far more acutely than they would have in the past. This paper was prepared as part of…
read more >>Growth, Employment and Distribution Impacts of Minerals Dependency: Four Case Studies
Cross-country evidence on the direct and indirect impacts of minerals dependency on growth suggests that the typical effect may be negative. The impact on employment and income distribution is even more likely to be adverse, since many minerals generate few jobs directly and may destroy more indirectly. Thus, countries heavily endowed with exportable natural resources…
read more >>Taking Off Into Sustained, Equitable Growth:Lessons From Successes And Failures
Berry offers an extensive set of case studies of economies that achieved sustained high growth. Chapter 1 discusses issues surrounding growth acceleration and current challenge for underperforming developing countries and the empirical record: evidence from countries that have accelerated to high sustained growth. Chapter 2 discusses the experience of Singapore and development strategy/policy prior to…
read more >>Employment and Economic Growth: Employment Elasticities in Thailand, Brazil, Chile and Argentina
In order to judge how much better a country could do in terms of job creation, it is important to have a benchmark for comparison. The experience of other countries and the recipes for their success are a key input into effective policy design. Case studies of such countries are valuable because they provide evidence…
read more >>2030 Horizon Scanning in South Africa: Domestic Economy
Unemployment and poverty are among the central uncertainties facing the South African economy. Creating market-based jobs is the most sustainable way of addressing these problems. The Human Sciences Research Council generated scenarios for job creation to 2024, based on GDP growth rates of 3%, 4.5% and 6%. It projects that if the economy grew by…
read more >>Background to Employment Scenarios
The Human Sciences Research Council’s Evidence-Based Employment Scenarios project was established to develop feasible scenarios of the economic structure to meet the goal of reducing unemployment by half between 2004 and 2014. It aims to identify the path and policy complements required to achieve these scenarios, as well as their political, financial and bureaucratic implications….
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