Employment Scenarios

Trajectories for SA Employment After COVID May 2022 SAJS

Trajectories for South African employment after COVID-19

by Miriam Altman, 2022

The COVID-19 health response shut down the South African economy for a period, and then continued to constrain face-to-face services such as tourism, hospitality and personal services. These industries create the majority of jobs in all middle- and high-income economies.


The challenge of employment creation in South Africa

by Altman,M., 2013
"State of the Nation: South Africa 2012–2013: Addressing Inequality and Poverty. Edited by Udesh Pillay, Gerard Hagg, Francis Nyamnjoh, Jonathan D Jansen. Chapter 6 pp.185- 221."

Altman reviews trends in employment, unemployment and working poverty, as well as the employment scenarios developed by the Human Sciences Research Council. Central questions relate to which sectors might create jobs, the role of government in direct job creation, the connection between employment and poverty reduction, and the need for social protection. Many of South…


Identifying Employment-creating Sectors in South Africa: The Role of Services Industries

by ALTMAN, M., 2006
Development Southern Africa, 23:5, 627-647

Altman explores scenarios for employment creation, with an emphasis on services. It considers whether the government’s current policies for the formal services sector will achieve its 2014 target of halving unemployment. New employment has mainly been found in the formal and non-formal services, and future employment will probably come from such sectors as business services,…


South African Mining Sector Employment: Forecast To 2025

by BAARTJES, N., 2011
Research report, Centre for Poverty Employment and Growth, Human Sciences Research Council, Pretoria

Baartjes focuses on trends in mining employment in South Africa, per sector, and includes a long-term forecast. He provides a profile of employment in the sector from 1995 to 2010, and discusses input shocks (e.g. electricity supply) and the commodity boom. He then reviews the primary mining sectors – gold, platinum group metals, coal, diamonds, iron…


Agricultural Employment Scenarios

by ALIBER, M., BAIPHETI, M. & JACOBS, P., 2009
Another Countryside? Policy Options for Land and Agrarian Reform in South Africa, Chapter 6, Ed. Ruth Hall, PLAAS, School of Government, University of Western Cape, April 2009

Agriculture is often held up as a sector in which much employment can be created. However, employment on commercial farms in South Africa has been in long-term decline. SA’s high unemployment rates draw us to question if this trend can be halted, or better, reversed. Another question is whether there are alternative ways in which…


Employment Scenarios to 2014 & 2024 in the Context of a Global Meltdown

by ALTMAN, M, 2009
Research Report. Centre for Poverty Employment and Growth, Human Sciences Research Council

The 2007 Human Sciences Research Council employment scenarios are updated in this paper, taking into account the possible impact of the global economic crisis on employment and poverty. Altman puts forward three employment scenarios, projecting economic growth rates averaging 2.5% (L-shaped recovery), 3.3% (U-shaped recovery) and 4.5% (V-shaped recovery) between 2004 and 2014. They all…


Editorial – Special Issue: Industrial growth and employment in South Africa.

by SIMKINS, C., 2008
Research Report. Centre for Poverty Employment and Growth, Human Sciences Research Council

Simkins offers population projections from 2007 to 2024 for the Human Sciences Research Council Employment Scenarios. He uses the SPECTRUM model by population group, gender and age group, based on:· The population composition reported by the Community Survey 2007· Fertility as estimated by the Community Survey 2007·Mortality as determined by background mortality and the effect of…


Mining Employment Scenarios for South Africa to 2024

Research Report, Employment Growth & Development Initiative, Human Sciences Research Council

Baartjes et al investigate the employment potential of the South African mining industry. They assess mining investment on a commodity-specific basis, the drivers of mining employment, how these relate to investment, and whether significant technological changes (greater mechanisation) would be widely adopted. This is followed by a discussion of employment, incomes and occupational skills levels,…


Identifying employment creating sectors in South Africa

by ALTMAN, M., 2005
Research Report, Employment Growth & Development Initiative, Human Sciences Research Council

Will Government’s current policy priorities and plans in relation to the formal services sector guide the economy towards its 2014 target of halving unemployment? Net new employment has mainly been found in formal and non-formal services. Given the structure of the SA economy, it is most probable that future employment will also be sourced from…