Forecasting the Demand for Scarce Skills, 2001-2006.

by "WOOLARD, I, KNEEBONE, P & LEE, D ", 2003
HRD Review 2003: Education, Employment and Skills in South Africa. Cape Town: Human Sciences Research Council Press. Chapter 20, pp 458-475.

Woolard et al study the demand for high-level human resources for the period 2001–2006 and forecast the number of new positions arising and the replacement demand over the period. They use a labour demand model to estimate the number of new positions stemming from industrial growth. The demand for engineers, natural scientists and computer-related professionals is forecast to be strong (i.e. growing by more than 2%), reflecting the increasing use of technology in all spheres of life. At the same time, the continued fiscal restraint by government will limit increases in professional employment in the public sector, with the number of educators and lecturers showing no growth, and the number of medical practitioners and nurses showing only 1% growth each. Nevertheless, replacement demand should be strong, as the effect of the HIV/AIDS epidemic escalates and adds to the vacancies created by retirements, emigration and other causes of mortality.